NAIROBI, Kenya — Tanzania’s ruling party has been in power for 64 years, and for much of that time without any serious opposition.
That looks set to extend when Tanzanians go to the polls on Wednesday in an election that is expected to be won by President Samia Suluhu Hassan, a former vice president who automatically ascended to the presidency in 2021 after the death of her predecessor.
Although Tanzania is a multi-party democracy, a single-party version, the Chama cha Mapinduzi or Hassan Revolution Party, has been in power since the country gained independence from Britain in 1961.
The country, with an annual per capita income of about $1,200, is an outlier in a region where liberation parties have fallen out of fashion and young people fill the ranks of feisty opposition groups seeking political change.
Authorities in the country of 68 million people have cracked down on opposition leaders, civic groups, journalists and others in what Amnesty International has described as a “climate of fear” ahead of general elections to elect a president, lawmakers and other local leaders.
Hassan, Tanzania’s sixth president and its first female leader, defied initial expectations that he would not follow the repressive style of former president John Pombe Magufuli, an authoritarian who did not allow opposition groups to campaign when elections were not scheduled.
Many voters are disenchanted by deepening authoritarianism under Hassan. Some critics point out that the opposition parties allowed to appear on the ballot have not campaigned much, and some opposition candidates even appear to support Hassan’s electoral candidacy.
Voters will choose between Hassan and 16 other contenders. Two of Hassan’s main opponents, Tundu Lissu of Chadema and Luhaga Mpina of ACT-Wazalendo, cannot seek the presidency of Tanzania.
Lissu is a charismatic leader of the opposition to Hassan in recent years following his European exile following an assassination attempt on him in 2017. He is now jailed on treason charges which he says are politically motivated. Police have since arrested Chadema deputy leader John Heche, who was detained while attending Lissu’s treason trial.
While his main opponents are imprisoned, Hassan has been touring the country in a campaign that promises stability and prosperity for many of those who work in agriculture. With “work and dignity,” his campaign says, the country can move forward.
His CCM party, which maintains ties to the Chinese Communist Party, has a loyal following in some parts of the country, although the party’s share of the popular vote has been declining as opposition groups advocate for change.
Still, the CCM goes to the polls virtually unopposed, said Nicodemus Minde, a Tanzanian researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, a South Africa-based think tank.
Voter turnout, which has been declining since 2010, is expected to be low, especially since the CCM’s victory is taken for granted, he wrote in an analysis for his group. “Voter apathy could be high due to the impact of the disqualification of the two main opposition parties,” he said.
He warned that elections in Tanzania present “a significant risk of strengthening authoritarian practices rather than promoting democratic governance.”
The opposition has called for protests on election day.
Chadema, the opposition group disqualified from participating in the elections, insists that there can be no popular vote without the reforms it says are necessary to have free and fair elections.
Some voters who spoke to The Associated Press said they were concerned about the threat to peace stemming from the election, after authorities said they would not tolerate any disruption from possible demonstrations.
Many say they have been disappointed by repressive tactics that include arbitrary arrests and kidnappings by strangers. Some are concerned that the government plans to shut down the Internet before the vote.
“Peace must prevail for the elections to run smoothly,” said Joshua Gerald, a resident of the commercial capital of Dar es Salaam, who asked that his last name not be used for security reasons. “Because without peace there may be chaos or fear, and people may not exercise their democratic rights.”
Noel Johnson, another young voter in the city, said that “the government needs to protect our constitutional rights, especially the right to protest because we are not satisfied with the ongoing electoral processes.”
Hassan has urged voters to turn out in large numbers, saying peace will prevail, but concerns about possible unrest remain.
Richard Mbunda, a political scientist at the University of Dar es Salaam, told The Associated Press that public discontent could push the country toward instability. “There are clear signs of unrest,” Mbunda said.
Even a seemingly stable country like Tanzania risks falling into confusion if the authorities appear distant, he warned.
“The tone of reconciliation spoken during the campaigns must be genuine,” he said. “Dialogue is necessary. The elections are legally valid but they lack political legitimacy.”
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Muhumuza reported from Kampala, Uganda. Associated Press writers in Dodoma and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, contributed to this report.