LONDON– When President Donald Trump took the stage in Egypt to hail the U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, a line of world leaders stood behind him like extras in a political drama.
It was a revealing image. European governments have struggled to play a significant role in diplomacy over the Gaza war, while the “America First” leader has played a central role, pushing long-standing allies in Europe into the background.
Closer to home, they have worked with mixed results to shape Trump’s response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s dogged pursuit of war in Ukraine, a conflict with profound consequences for the continent’s future.
“Can Europe influence Trump? I think the short answer… is no,” said Lindsay Newman, a geopolitical risk expert and GZERO Media columnist. “The policy and positioning of the US government (on Ukraine, Israel, its relationship with Europe) is defined by the president and those around him. To a large extent, the president.”
Newman said Trump’s ambitious global agenda proves that anyone who thought “‘America First’ means a narrow, isolationist foreign policy is wrong.”
“He is remaking the world in his image,” he said.
European support for Ukraine against the Russian invasion has clashed with Trump’s desire to end the conflict even if it means kyiv gives up territory. The continent’s leaders have had decidedly mixed results in trying to shore up the president’s support for Ukraine.
This week, Trump finally pulled the trigger and sanctioned Russia’s oil and gas industry after bipartisan pressure in Washington and months of lobbying by kyiv and its European allies.
But he seemed more motivated by frustration with Putin – unable to persuade the Russian leader to hold direct talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy – than to reassure European countries, whom he has accused of undermining his call for sanctions on the United States by continuing to buy Russian oil.
“Every time I talk to Vladimir, I have good conversations and then they go nowhere,” Trump said irritably on Wednesday. “I just felt like it was time. We waited a long time.”
The White House did not respond to requests for comment.
Trump has made no secret of his frustration at not having been able to stop the three-and-a-half-year war, something he boasted during the election campaign that he would achieve on the first day of his return to office.
He has advised Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, met with Putin in Alaska and sent envoys to Moscow and kyiv, but has failed to push the two sides to the negotiating table. However, days after the meeting with Putin, Trump hosted Zelenskyy and top European leaders at the White House and said the United States would be willing to support European efforts to monitor any peace deal in Ukraine.
Trump has hinted that he will give kyiv long-range Tomahawk missiles to strike inside Russia, but he also appeared to back Putin’s demand that Ukraine hand over its entire eastern Donbas region, including the parts Russia does not occupy.
The president and his team have argued that the largest conflict on European soil since World War II is of minimal importance to the United States and urged Europeans to take greater responsibility for ending the conflict.
European leaders welcomed this week’s oil and gas sanctions, which French President Emmanuel Macron called “a turning point.”
But Europe has its own divisions over Ukraine. The 27-nation European Union is struggling to finalize a plan to use frozen Russian assets as collateral for a massive loan to Ukraine. Belgium, where much of the money is kept, is seeking assurances that other countries will share the burden of any Russian economic retaliation.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a friend of Moscow, opposes EU support for kyiv. Despite that, Grégoire Roos, director of the Europe and Russia program at international affairs think tank Chatham House, said there has been progress in forging a cohesive European position toward Trump.
“I don’t see absolute unanimity, but on the other hand, I don’t see unity breaking down significantly,” he said. “And as far as Europe is concerned, this is already a victory.”
Europe’s influence in the conduct of the war between Israel and Hamas is even more tenuous.
“Europe has had no real impact, let’s face it,” Roos said, although Europe will be asked to provide money and expertise for the eventual reconstruction of Gaza.
The EU is the world’s largest provider of aid to the Palestinians, but has little influence over Israel, in part because European nations are divided over how to handle the conflict.
Since forging the fragile ceasefire, which he hailed at an Oct. 13 summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, as “a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to put old enmities and bitter hatreds behind,” Trump and his team have praised Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. But he has not said anything about Europe’s participation.
Trump’s ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, even took to
The US administration’s irritation has been fueled in part by the fact that Britain and France last month joined several other countries in recognizing a Palestinian state.
The ceasefire has, at least temporarily, lowered the volume of European criticism of Israel for its treatment of the Palestinians, often tinged with implicit criticism of the United States’ strong support for Israel.
Jonath Schanzer, a former terrorism financing analyst at the U.S. Treasury Department, said the space created by the ceasefire could help put the United States and Europe in a better position.
“Trump’s ceasefire turned harsh European criticism into a murmur,” said Schanzer, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hardline think tank in Washington. “This has allowed all parties to move forward in a more constructive manner.”
Newman said Trump seems more interested in building relationships with countries across the Middle East than with Europe.
“There have been efforts to move away from the Middle East during successive US administrations,” he said. “But it’s almost like there’s a shift toward the region.”
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its growing belligerence toward neighboring NATO countries has been a wake-up call for Europe, made even more alarming by Trump’s long-standing threats not to defend European NATO members unless they shell out more money for their own defense.
This got the desired response by pressuring many European countries to increase military spending.
Europe’s worst fears about Trump’s second term have yet to come true. Trump has not withdrawn US troops from Europe nor has he withdrawn from NATO. Their global tariff blitz has not resulted in the threatened 100% import taxes on European products.
Britain, which left the EU in 2020, is moving closer politically, economically and militarily to its European neighbors, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer has become a key conduit between Washington and the continent.
Kathleen Burk, emeritus professor of modern and contemporary history at University College London, said Trump respects unity and that “if Europeans stick together,” they can hope to have some influence.
“Trump may have realized that it is always better to have allies than enemies,” he said.
___
Madhani reported from Washington.